In the Classroom: Systems Modeling
Today I was supposed to participate in an METC workshop on using audio in the classroom. Instead, I am home with the flu and consuming large amount of medication and clear liquids. Although the decision not to go to work would seem obvious to most, I seriously contemplated attending the session until my mother, who was visiting for the weekend, said in her uniquely maternal way, “Don’t be an idiot. You’ll just make other people sick. Don’t you know any better than that?”
The fact is I DO know better and hopefully so do the 7th grade science classes that recently used Stella to explore the spread of infectious diseases. Using a simple model of the flu, students were able to manipulate factors such as the number of people initially infected with the illness, the size of the population, and the rates of infection and recovery. They made predictions, tested their hypotheses, and discussed how different factors can influence and/or lead to an epidemic.
The Stella model divided people into three general classes: Susceptible (can catch the illness), Infected (have the flu and can infect others), and Recovered (had the illness and won’t catch it again). By tracking these populations, the students could see how the disease would spread under various conditions. For example, here is what might have happened if I had gone to the workshop this morning and then spent the rest of the day in the Middle School:
According to the model, my mom was right; I would have spread the flu to a number of my colleagues and students. How many, exactly? Hard to say. Although the simulation does provide numerical data, the figures cannot be taken too literally because, as noted statistician George Box once remarked, “Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.” The trends and relationships illustrated by the model are certainly useful, even if the numbers are imprecise.
Tools like Stella demonstrate the tranformative potential of technology in the classroom. Building and manipulating models of dynamic systems changes the student experience from passive observation to active investigation. Issues such as disease, population growth, oil prices, immigration, and public policy can be explored instead of merely studied. And while there is nothing like real-world experience, I think that all of the people that I didn’t infect today would agree that there are lessons to be learned from listening to your model…and your mom.
